Republican Within One in Massachusetts

 This is not a poll result that I expected but apparently according to the Boston Globe the Republican in the Bay State's Gubernatorial contest is within one of a sitting Democratic Governor. This isn't the same wave that defeated Martha Coakley, but is partially the result of a screwy three-way race much like the New Jersey Governor's race last year.

Incumbent Democrat Deval Patrick was elected in the spirit of "Hope and Change" and has since being inaugurated in 2007 built up a steady reputation for incompetence. Patrick is a personal friend of President Obama's and suffers even lower approval ratings than him-- even though he received 55% in the Democratic wave year of 2006.

But these new results are something to behold:

Patrick * (D): 35%
Baker (R): 34%
Cahill (I): 11%
* Denotes incumbent

Patrick is also being dragged down by Timothy Cahill, who is the State Treasurer and who left the Democratic Party last year. The unfortunate news is that Cahill appears to also be dragging down Baker. Baker appears to be gaining since June when he was behind by a full seven points. The Republican in 2006 received just 35% of the voting share.

Baker’s strength appears to rest on his appeal to unenrolled, or independent, voters, who make up more than 50 percent of the electorate and often determine statewide races. Among registered independents, he leads Patrick 35 percent to 28 percent, with Cahill getting 13 percent.

Patrick suffers from a 42% approval rating with a 43% disapproval rating-- in a deep blue state. This is certainly not good news-- but if he could tap into the 7% more that approve of him than say they will vote for him, it could be a problem.




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