Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Election 2010: How many seats will the GOP win?

Political whizkids on both sides of the ideological spectrum have one thing in common as voters head for the polling booths this week into next: they're all attempting to guess, or predict how many congressional seats the Republican Party will gain on election day.

Some are predicting a tsunami of 60 or more seats to the Republican Party, something that hasn't happened to either party since the GOP gained 72 seats in the 1938 mid-term election. While others are simply downplaying Republican hopes with a prediction of 45 or more seats. Which is frankly, offensive to the electorate at-large.

But what does history tell us?

Well, in 1994 when Clinton's extreme liberalism was soundly rejected, House Republicans gained 54 seats, and control of the House for the first time in four decades. And in the 1946 election, after close to fourteen consecutive years of Democratic control, Republicans were able to gain 55 seats on the had enough? mantra.

However, those were both after decades of Democratic congressional rule. But neither of those extended lengths of rule resulted in legislation as unpopular or as despised as the President's signature issue, the new health care law, which the general public wants repealed and replaced ASAP.

Then there is the curious case of 1894, which talk show hosts such as Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity have been bringing up as of late. With the 1893 panic looming in their mind, Democrats in control of the White House, and political conditions just prefect: the people voted out Democrats in favor of Republicans. 125 new Republican lawmakers to be exact.

So how many seats will the GOP capture on election day?

No-one will really know until November third, but if electoral history is any guide to voter trends today, 54 or 55 congressional seats that are currently represented by Democrats will be in Republican control for the 112th United States Congress. Which is also the prediction of highly praised Conservative columnist Charles Krauthammer. Both predctions bode well for the GOP. Perhaps 8-12 may fall into GOP hands-- most likely around 8 rather than the latter.

Any thoughts?

3 comments:

  1. Your prediction's pretty spot-on, I'd say. I'm thinking about the same, give or take a couple.

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  2. It's going to be bigger than that. Historians will call this election a second American Revolution.

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  3. 90 seats in the house
    9-10 in the senate

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