Republican Leads in Illinois Gov Race

Incumbent Democratic Governor Pat Quinn has fallen behind his Republican challenger. Bill Brady has had a fairly consistent lead this entire year over Quinn, who became Governor of Illinois after Rod Blagojevich had to resign in shame after trying to take money in exchange for the vacant Senate seat after Barack Obama vacated it.


Illinois is a relatively blue state and overwhelmingly backed Barack Obama in 2008. It appears unlikely that the GOP could take it in the 2012 Presidential stakes, but this is a positive move. Furthermore, the GOP is looking for gains in Congress and to take the open Senate seat this year.


This poll comes from the St. Louis times working with Mason-Dixon. While not as accurate as firms like Rasmussen it appears that the results here may be fairly reliable. And the news is not good for Quinn, who is already struggling.


Brady (R): 44%
Quinn * (D): 40%
Other/und: 16%
* Denotes incumbent


The high level of undecideds are a mixed bag. While most undecideds in this stage of an election tend to break away from the incumbent, in a deep blue state they may back the Democrat. However, the fact that Brady has a significant lead this late in the game, coupled with an incumbent under 50% seems to point in the right direction.


And the news is bad for President Obama as well:

The poll also found that President Barack Obama's approval rating in his home state has dropped to 51 percent, a dramatic indicator of how tough the national climate is for Democrats.

"Here's a guy whose numbers in Illinois have never been below 60, and he's flirting with 50-50," says pollster Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. "That's an eye-popper."

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