Florida's Nelson Falls Behind in Matchup Against Bush

 Florida Senator Bill Nelson appears to be in some trouble should he decide to run for re-election. The second term Democrat is up next year. This comes as a wave of retirements have hit both parties, including Jim Webb of Virginia and John Kyl of Arizona.

As of now, it's unclear if Nelson, who will be 70 next year, will run for another term. However, Mason-Dixon has put out a poll that should make the picture a bit clearer. Nelson won over 60% of the vote in 2006, a politically advantageous year for Democrats running against former State Attorney General Katherine Harris.

The first matchup pits Nelson against former governor Jeb Bush, who retired in 2007:

Bush (R): 49%
Nelson (D): 41%
Other/und: 10%

However, if Nelson ran against Flordia Senate President Mike Haridopolis, he would have a better chance:

Nelson (D): 48%
Haridopolis (R): 27%
Other/und: 25%

Still, in both cases Nelson is below the important 50% threshold. Against other Republicans he's leading but is held below 50%.

The other two names tested who are seriously considering the race are Rep. Connie Mack and former Sen. George LeMieux. While they have higher name recognition in the state and performed better against Nelson in the poll, they aren't expected to perform as well in a GOP primary.

Mack scored 40 percent to Nelson's 45 percent, and LeMieux took 35 percent to Nelson's 49 percent.

Either way, Nelson has some work to do if he wants to win re-election.


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