Sunday, June 05, 2011

Opponents to Natural Gas Make Very Strange Bedfellows

Welcome Instapundit readers...

As I have been studying the debate surrounding natural gas development through hydraulic fracturing I have noted that there is a very interesting group of dissenters. In New York, for instance there are the true believers, those who believe that any carbon discharged through energy production is taboo. As Sally Courtright laments in an editorial she wrote to the Albany Times Union, "....Americans need to become informed about the unprecedented crisis we face by the end of this century if we do not curb our gluttony for fossil fuels. We need to turn to solar, wind and other modern technologies to sustain our precious planet for future generations." This cabal is joined by the NIMBY brigade. Those who have invested much money in the notion of what bucolic pastoral living should be and have little care for the societal and economic plight of their neighbors.

"Natural gas development can be pursued with sound environmental controls and with significant positive economic results, but the rich, unconcerned “green” elite will fight it without any regard to the socio-economic realities of what presently exists in the many depressed counties in our region."

Stated another way~

Gas can reduce carbon by 50 to 70%, but not by 100%, and even nuclear, CCS and renewables don't do that either. Gas does have substantial advantages however in economic development and social progress. Social progress is certainly the Achilles Heel of the NIMBY brigade. Much of the opposition in places like Pennsylvania comes from the weekend residents or drop ins who choose to act like organic goatherd/ peasants compared to the local permanent population who have never had an option but to live like peasants.

In the U.S. the greens are joined in common cause with the Coal Industry that has seen it's value as an energy producing giant handicapped by cheap, plentiful and clean natural gas. From the WSJ, " Coal-burning facilities are expected to slip to 10% of total new capacity in the U.S. in 2013, down from 18% in 2009, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reports. Gas, meanwhile, is expected to soar to 82% of new capacity in 2013 from 42% last year." The small won't survive.

Moving across the Atlantic we come to France whose legislature has passed a bill banning unconventional resource development. France of course is a nuclear country, generating more than "75 percent of the countries electrical needs while exporting 18% of its total production to Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Germany. What may come as a surprise is the French government is the main shareholder of two nuclear technology companies that manages the country's 59 nuclear power plants. As such, shale gas represented a potential competitive threat to a well entrenched, politically connected nuclear industry."

Poland sits atop so much shale gas they are using terms like "energy security". Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorsko (via No Hot Air) recently commented, "Exploration of our own resources is our chance and our obligation, ...a chance to limit Poland's and Europe's dependence on imports". This doesn't sit well with everyone in the region. Gazprom is the world's largest supplier of natural gas, it is state owned, supplies around 25 percent of Europe's natural gas and in 2010 its net profit totaled more than $35 billion with net income surging 24 percent in 2010. For what it's worth, Gazprom was actively lobbying the French to ban natural gas drilling there.

"South Africa generated 93% of their electricity from coal in 2008, and 0% from gas. That would put SA into one of the biggest carbon producers per capita if one overlooked the dire poverty that the majority of the population still find themselves in. Let's remember that the US EPA said earlier this year that coal generation is responsible for 17000 premature deaths in the US each year thanks to pollution." The Karoo formation holds up to 1,000 trillion cubic feet of natural gas representing the fifth largest shale resource in the world, but for reasons completely inexplicable ANTI-fracking coalition Treasure the Karoo Action Groupbrags of a budget of "close to R10 million" to oppose fracking. Dr. Phillip Lloyd thinks thousands of jobs will be produced. He adds~

“I support Shell. Shell does not support me. So why do I support them? Because they are bringing money and modern technology to explore the Karoo gas field…

The precautionary principle – waiting until all things had been proven harm-free - was “an intellectual copout”. In the same way that Saddam Hussein could not prove that he did not have weapons of mass destruction, you can’t prove ahead of time that there will be no harm. Lloyd thought ordinary industrial processes would sort out water pollution and other potential problems.

“If the shale gas is proven, it will be a huge cheque for the nation – thousands of jobs and clean energy. And the Karoo will remain a perfectly good home for sheep.”

Finally I come to Saudi Arabia. They understand the implications of the United States and the world developing their own energy sources and are loathe to let that happen. Saudi Prince Al-Waleed bin Talal said today that "he wants oil prices to drop so that the United States and Europe don't accelerate efforts to wean themselves off his country's supply. We don't want the West to go and find alternatives, because, clearly, the higher the price of oil goes, the more they have incentives to go and find alternatives." According to the Prince the oil price should be somewhere between $70 and $80 a barrel. Look for increased production from OPEC in the coming weeks.

The alternative energy to which he is referring isn't solar, wind, or wave. It is natural gas and the new technologies that are being developed to utilize it.

Regarding this Charlie Martin over at Pajamas Media has a remarkable article today describing a process being developed and utilized by Shell to "transform natural gas into synthetic replacements for petroleum products. In other words, turning natural gas into oil."

This is news that will give the anti-fracking coalition stomach upset.

Cross posted at The Lonely Conservative

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7 comments:

  1. The fracturing techniques have changed the whole ballgame. Here's a line for you to use on greens: "We're at the dawn of the age of fossil fuels."

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  2. They're not just anti-gas, anti-coal, anti-oil, anti-nuclear. In fact, they have opposed solar (Mohave Desert) and wind (Cape Cod), too. Above all, they are anti-energy. That means: anti-middle class, that is to say, anti-you!

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  3. The most optimistic projection for the total amount of gas in the US comes from the Potential Gas Committee.

    http://www.potentialgas.org/

    As of the end of 2010, the biannual report from that organization indicated that there was approximately 2170 trillion cubic feet of future natural gas supplies in the United States when you include the categories of proven, probable, possible and speculative resources. That might sound like an impressively large number, but the current rate of consumption in the US is about 23 trillion cubic feet per year.

    Even without any increase in consumption by stealing market share from coal or nuclear energy, the US natural gas resource would be completely consumed in just 94 years. I have a 17 month old granddaughter. My grandmother lived to be 97 and my great-grandmother lived to be 101. It is inconceivable to me that people think of a valuable energy resource that will be consumed within the possible lifetime of my already living granddaughter as something that we should think about consuming even faster.

    The real alternative that worries the Saudis is nuclear fission. Not only is there plenty of uranium in the ground, but the US has already mined and stored inventories that could power our total energy needs for several thousand years if we simply deploy breeder and converter reactor technology that has already been developed and proven in larger than laboratory scale demonstration projects like the EBR-II and the liquid fueled thorium reactors.

    The Saudis were warned about the ability of nuclear energy to impoverish them in 1956 when President Eisenhower sent Robert Anderson as a special envoy during the Suez Canal crisis. He told them that we could, if we wanted, unleash the power of the atom for all energy consumers. (Source: Daniel Yergin's The Prize: The Quest for Oil, Money and Power")

    One more thing - the natural gas market is largely controlled by the very same multinational petroleum companies who have taken far more than their share of earthly wealth for far too long. ExxonMobil's energy production in 2010 was nearly 50-50 between oil and natural gas and their annual revenue was $450 BILLION on an employment base of just 80,000 people.

    Rod Adams
    Publisher, Atomic Insights

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  4. Thanks for the thoughts Rod. Gazprom has Exxon beat though. Nuclear fission may be the way to go, and I would welcome nearly any alternative to get us out from under the "middle eastern" thumb, but natural gas is in my backyard, or under it, as it were. Regardless, when opportunity knocks you don't slam the door.

    I would also quibble with your numbers as it relates to natural gas, but that is another post.

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  5. clean, local, abundant natural gas is clearly the best solution!

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  6. @Unlikely Hospitalist - please send me a link when you do quibble with my numbers. I would enjoy finding out where you think I have gone wrong in my reading and computations.

    I do not advocate slamming the door on opportunity, but I do advocate thinking less selfishly. What right do currently extant humans have to plan on using up a useful raw material like natural gas in less than 100 years? Do we expect that future chemists will figure out a better source of material for such vital products as fertilizer and plastics?

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  7. Was it Thomas Paine that said "Kill the king...keep the man"..?

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