The Current Status of the Republican Field

Up until a few months ago, President Obama seemed assured of reelection in 2012. In a short time span, several things have happened.

His left wing base has turned against him for failing to stand up to the conservatives in Congress, and for failing to successfully enact the progressive agenda. Those to his right continue to attack him, gaining increasing credibility by pointing to serious economic problems, a stimulus that failed to work, high unemployment, excessive spending, rising debt, and a failed foreign policy. His 2008 campaign rhetoric now looks empty and even silly. His poll numbers are declining, as the citizens of this nation, fairly or not, blame him for our many problems. His image as the messiah has been sufficiently undermined that the media now feels free to critique and attack him.

Thus the election of 2012 has gone from being a sure thing for Obama a mere six months ago, to being about the likely defeat of Obama. We are seeing repeated analogies to incumbent President Jimmy Carter’s loss in 1980. Many now believe that virtually any Republican can beat him. As a result, the Republican race is no longer about choosing another loser, another Bob Dole or Barry Goldwater, but quite possibly selecting the next President of the United States.

What are the Republicans offering? After the failure of any of the other candidates to draw blood from Romney in the debate last Thursday, the strong win by Michelle Bachmann of the Iowa straw poll last Saturday, the entry of Texas Governor Rick Perry into the race, and the withdrawal of Governor Tim Pawlenty, we are now effectively in a three way race, between Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, and Michelle Bachmann. Each candidate has strengths and plenty of weaknesses.

Mitt Romney seems stale. He ran for and lost the nomination in 2008, and since then has been campaigning non-stop. More importantly, he is not known for having strong convictions on issues important to Republicans, and has a propensity to shift his positions on an ad hoc basis. Douthat points out that he has avoided “taking a single courageous or even remotely interesting position.” The adjective opportunistic sticks to him and is unlikely to go away.

Rick Perry does not lack for convictions. He is a fighter who understands the right wing electorate. He can boast that half of the new jobs in the nation under Obama’s reign happened in Texas while he was governor But he may not have an understanding of the moderate voter who makes up the bulk of the US electorate. Further, he is another conservative from Texas, too soon after George W. Bush. And the country likely will want a more moderate figure, not a fire-breathing right winger. Yes, Ronald Reagan was also considered far right. But Reagan was eminently likeable, folksy, a beloved figure, unlike Perry. And if Perry runs as a right-winger, which is almost assured, and Obama moves to the center, Barack Obama will seem like the better bet to the electorate.

Michelle Bachmann has distinguished herself by her energy, intelligence, and political savvy. She has some drawbacks, including some major gaffes and rewriting of history. But is the nation ready to elect a woman, not to mention a tea party leader?.

In recent years, we have been told that after the 1928 Al Smith debacle, we would never elect a Catholic. John F. Kennedy disproved that. And we were similarly told the nation would never elect an African-American; Barack Obama disproved that. There is no reason why we would not elect a woman; Hillary Clinton came very close. And as for the tea party issue, the answer to that is Ronald Reagan, who represented the same people and issues, though called by a different name.

Bachmann has been labeled a spoiler. Yet, considering her entry onto the national stage in such a short time, and her other considerable attributes, I consider her every bit as likely to secure the nomination as the other two.

Are there other candidates who might yet enter the race? People who have said they are not running, political figures like Paul Ryan, Marc Rubio, or Mitch Daniels, may yet change their minds. And then there is New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. Writing in today’s New York Times, Ross Douthat makes a compelling case for Christie to join the race for the Republican nomination.

According to Douthat Christie has “accomplished more, against more determined opposition, amid more media scrutiny and with more resilient poll numbers”, than any of the other current political figures.

Christie is ideologically more moderate than the other Republican candidates. However, for conservatives his combative style and his success in taking on the public unions in New Jersey more than makes up for this “flaw”. (He has called the state’s teachers’ union a “political thuggery operation.”)

A politically moderate middle-class Catholic from the Northeast may be a welcome relief from the rightist Bush-Perry-Sunbelt precincts. And his centrist leanings may serve him well in the general election.

Chris Christie may be made to order for the task of President of the United States. But will he run? To do so may be a huge gamble on his part, cutting short his career should he lose. But if he wins? In that case, America will be the winner.

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